Betting Markets Give Democrats a 75% Chance of Sweeping Congress on Election Day

Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing a Democratic takeover of both chambers of Congress at roughly a 75% chance on Election Day, with about $1.3 billion traded on Kalshi’s midterm markets and $600 million on Polymarket’s.

A screenshot from Kalshi’s prediction market platform showing midterm election contract prices. Photo by Kalshi.

As of November 3, both platforms put Democrats’ chances of winning the House at roughly 93–95%. Senate control is more competitive: Democrats are priced at about 74–78%, with Republicans at 22–26%.

A graphic from Kalshi, the prediction market platform tracking real-money election contracts. Credit: Kalshi.

The leading alternative to a Democratic sweep is a Democratic House paired with a Republican Senate, priced at roughly 20–22%. A Republican sweep sits around 5–7%, while a Republican House and Democratic Senate is around 1%. These snapshots can change as election results arrive.

Those percentages come from prices on real-money contracts. They reflect traders’ expectations, and they don’t guarantee an election outcome.

The roughly $1.9 billion figure measures trading volume across midterm markets; the narrower balance-of-power markets account for tens of millions of dollars.

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